Update 27 September: Well we didn’t see much of it in the south, and that’s putting it mildly, but it rained a fair amount in north Tenerife, and as far south as Arafo. There were several minor accidents on the motorways in the north, and some flooding, but Tenerife needs a lot more where that came from, and it wouldn’t be taken amiss if it shared it with the south either!
Update 26 September: OK you know as well as I do that it’s probably not going to amount to much, but Aemet is forecasting rain for Tenerife from midnight tonight until mid afternoon tomorrow – enough rain, indeed, to warrant a yellow alert. Let’s hope, eh? The alert also covers strong winds at altitude, gusting to 89 km/h.
Update 24 September 9pm: Well it looks like that’s it. Nadine continues westwards back into the Atlantic, and the African storm front seems to have ended up as a damp squib. No rain on the radar from Aemet, and the Canarian Government has lifted the Emergency Emergency Pre-alert.
Update 24 September: It’s just not going to do it for us. The African storm front cut off electricity in Lanzarote, Fuerteventura and Gran Canaria, but just couldn’t get as far as Tenerife. Even today’s yellow alert has been lifted. We needed that rain so badly.
Update 23 September 11pm: Nadine has regained strength and is now a tropical storm again, but as of 9pm this evening is moving west, away from us, and back into the Atlantic. Tomorrow, however, we should see the arrival of the African storm front, which is already affecting Lanzarote and Fuerteventura with heavy rain and strong wind. The Canarian Government has issued a yellow alert for tomorrow.
Update 22 September 11pm: Over the last several hours, Nadine has been downgraded from a tropical storm and, although there is a possibility that it could regenerate, is no longer looking so fearsome, and has only moved eastwards by a small amount. Meanwhile, a bank of storm cloud is heading for us from Africa; Aemet says it should arrive throughout tomorrow and Monday. The yellow alert for rain up to 15mm per hour remains in place as, for the moment, does the Emergency Pre-alert for Nadine.
Update 23 September: Post-tropical storm Nadine is now 500 miles wnw of us, 150 miles closer than yesterday. Thunderstorm activity in the centre is increasing, and regeneration into a tropical storm is considered quite possible (60% chance) as it moves over warmer water, continuing eastwards at between 5 and 10 miles an hour, over the next 48 hours. Considering that an African storm front is approaching westwards as well, this could be rather interesting ….
Update 22 September 2pm: The American National Hurricane Center appears to have come into line with the European model, and as of 8am this morning is saying that Nadine is about 650 miles west-northwest of the Canaries, moving south-southeastwards towards us at around 10mph, regeneration being possible as it moves over warmer waters over next couple of days.
Update 22 September: Nadine’s specific trajectory doesn’t seem any clearer this morning but at the very least we should feel some of its effects from tomorrow. Aemet has raised a yellow alert for rain which is currently set from 6am Monday morning: at present it is not for torrential rain, with around 15mm per hour forecast, but these things are frequently subject to change. The least we can say is that something is coming, and it should start arriving tomorrow.
Update 21 September 6.30pm: The latest GFS (European) model has shown a radical change that would bring Nadine right over us between Sunday and Thursday, regaining strength all the while. I stress: this is a computerised model – let’s hope it’s wrong.
Update 21 September midday: The Government isn’t taking any chances now. A Regional Emergency Pre-alert has been issued this morning for storm, wind and wild seas in the Canaries due to the arrival or close passage of Tropical Storm Nadine.
Update 21 September: There seem to be two clear model forecasts now for Nadine. The US one sees it passing between the Canaries and Madeira over the next several days, with the Canaries feeling just the tail end effects. The European GFS model, however, as animated in the above video, shows Madeira getting the full force of it, but with the Canaries well within the main tropical storm next Wednesday. This is clearly shown in the following still of Wednesday from that video. The only thing that seems certain is that no-one is certain yet whether we’re going to get a gentle breeze and a drop of rain or a full blown tropical storm!
Original post 19 September: Aemet is forecasting a possible kick for us in the tail of Tropical Storm Nadine, which is arriving in the Azores this evening, and could bring at last, some rain to the Canaries on Monday. Chief of Predicción y Vigilancia de la Aemet en Canarias, Jesús Agüera, said today that the storm should cause a large swell in the sea from Friday, particularly noticeable in La Palma and La Gomera. There should also be moderate winds, strong at altitude, but nothing, he said, that will warrant the raising of any alert. Rain, if it comes, will not be “intense”. I hope they’re right!