Updated 20 October: Well it’s here, though its effects aren’t evenly distributed. In the western medianías we have wind, and how (and howling!), but not too much rain as of 1pm but some is forecast for later. On the west coast, however, there’s not much more than cloud at present. In the north, some areas are experiencing wind and rain but again, mainly in the parts above 600m or so. Izaña, however, the area of the observatory and so at altitude, has had hurricane level gusts from 11am, the strongest recorded so far of 130 km/h. The authorities say the wind is their main concern and they urge everyone to be extremely cautious and to avoid going out if they can avoid it, tie down or bring in loose objects, etc.
Updated 19 October: They are still saying it’s guaranteed! Maybe not for absolutely everyone, and no doubt there’ll be the usual social media chorus of “not a drop where I am” … but it is coming, and La Palma will get it first with the eastern islands getting a bit less but still some from the afternoon. And the wind has already started at altitude, with some amazing cloud formations, and given the size and height of them, and the way they’re transforming into the familiar “Teide hat” lenticular shape, the speed of it all amply demonstrates the strength of that wind. It’ll be more noticeable for all of us tomorrow, it seems, and Aemet, who have produced the following animated graphic, says that the wind will be the biggest factor tomorrow. especially in the SW medianías and altitude. To paraphrase Feste from Shakespeare’s Twelth Night, it might not raineth every day but hey, ho, the wind and the rain … let’s hope, for the rain, anyway!
No esperamos grandes cambios en la predicción de lluvias para mañana. Afectarán a todas las islas, correspondiendo las mayores intensidades a las occidentales.
El otro fenómeno a tener muy en cuenta es el viento, siendo especialmente intenso del SW en medianías y cumbres. pic.twitter.com/o2PglFraTr
— AEMET_Canarias (@AEMET_Canarias) October 19, 2020
Original post 17 October: Wind and rain, 100% guaranteed … a tall order and not one to commit to lightly, but Aemet has done that. The national Met Office says that we can expect the arrival of the southern end of a large front connected with a storm centred on the west of the mainland. Aemet says that the likeliest scenarios they are working with now “show a 100% probability of rainfall in the western islands, with some rain in the eastern ones too. 100%. Well …
As well as the rain, the circulation of this low pressure area will see wind from the south, increasing significantly especially at altitude, starting tomorrow, particularly affecting the medianías and altitude in Tenerife and La Palma.