Updated 13 October: Leslie is on his way north, and the image on the right from Aemet shows quite how close he came to us even though no meteorologists ever predicted a direct hit. Nonetheless, the Met Office says that the hurricane’s proximity means that we can expect rain tomorrow because it has created a great deal of humidity which will be drawn back to us as rain by northerly winds.
I say “the hurricane” because despite projections of the storm losing force and becoming a tropical cyclone as it weakened, it has kept its strength, and as a result, Madeira and especially Portugal are now on alert for strong gales, torrential rain and very heavy seas. Our own seas here are not going to escape the effects either, and will be rougher than usual, so please exercise great care in the water even though all appears now largely to be over for us as far as Leslie is concerned. The current range of models for the projected direction of Leslie are below.
Updated 10pm: The Canarian Government says tonight that its Security and Emergencies Board is continuing to monitor the trajectory of Leslie though meteorological forecasts show it moving away from the islands, and indeed the latest projection shows it going even further north than Cadiz and entering Spain through Lisbon (see left, click to enlarge). The DGSE says that we can expect to see rain, wind and heavy seas this weekend but in line with normal autumnal weather, and below the levels at which Aemet would issue an alert. The Government nonetheless asks the public to pay attention to any alerts that might be issued should the situation change over the next 24-48 hours.
Updated 4pm: The latest and firmest so far projection from the Hurricane Centre via Aemet within the last half hour is for Leslie not to turn towards the Canary Islands, which remain completely outside of its influence. Obviously this can change, but so far we are looking good.
Updated 12 October: Aemet has said this morning that the latest projection of Leslie’s trajectory shows a change, with the centre of the storm now heading for the north of Madeira and then turning back towards the Canaries on Monday, not Sunday, but in a very much weaker form than at present. Further updates through the day, I’m sure, and you can click on the latest graphic (on the right) to see full size. Meanwhile, the graphic below shows the potential variations being projected, this is the current range of models showing Leslie’s possible behaviour over the next 48 hours or so. Many take it off up to the mainland, only a quarter or so show it coming our way … and those that do show it coming our way are green which mean we’ll get the lowest winds. This is a “work in progress”, clearly!
Updated 11 October: Just for clarification today … the Met Office and responsible amateur meteorologists are all saying that whatever is heard or read today about “Hurricane” (soon to be Tropical Storm) Leslie and its approach to and effect on the Canary Islands can be ignored because the storm is behaving erratically. No forecast prior to tomorrow evening can be taken as having any relevance because things are changing too much.
It still seems most likely that we will not get hit head on, that we will get some rain and, most noticeably, sustained winds of around 70 km/h (so with gusts up to 100km/h or so), but we will have to wait another 30 hours or so before we get a forecast projecting anything that can be relied on for Sunday when Leslie is likely to be at its nearest to us.
Updated 10 October: I had decided not to post regular updates because they create the impression of an imminent danger that needs to be monitored, and felt it was obvious that without any further news, the last update would be taken to continue to apply … but clearly people are worrying because they’re seeing so many discussions especially on social media about “Hurricane Leslie”.
So … the storm is indeed now a hurricane, but today’s projection from the Hurricane Centre via Aemet (see image left, click to see full size) shows a retrograde movement to the west away from the Canaries after the closest approach on Sunday. Aemet says that obviously forecasts can and do change, but at this moment, their forecast reiterates the original comments that I made, that it’s “unlikely that we’re going to get a “storm” but certainly we can expect temperatures to drop somewhat, some blustery winds, and possibly some rain at times in some places”.
The day by day forecast from Aemet for the Canaries, as things stand with all usual caveats in place, is that there could be some showers tomorrow and it could be breezy, stable weather on Friday, possibility of showers on Saturday. Beyond that, with the current projection models available, Leslie should be closest to us on Sunday, and so we can expect further updates nearer that point.
Updated 8 October: Although we’ve clearly seen some effect from being skirted by this borrasca, it is now very unlikely to have any further effect on us at all. Despite being called “a hurricane” it is actually “Tropical Storm Leslie”, and it’s heading away from us after coming towards us for a few days. This is Aemet’s latest projection from the Hurricane Centre of its path, to the north and east and still quite a way from Tenerife, and becoming more distant as the hours pass.
Updated 7 October: I’m not sure that the forecast is really any clearer for Tenerife but the borrasca identified as approaching from the west has now seen La Palma put on yellow alert from this afternoon for rains. How near us this will get is still unclear but it seems very likely that there will be some evidence of it in the build up of clouds, winds and showers over the next few days.
Original post 5 October: It’s not “winter”, of course, and in fact we’re only just into Autumn, but the first real weather system of autumn/winter 2018-19 is almost with us. Already we can see the build of up clouds brought by a borrasca (atmospheric depression) kept at bay for some weeks to the west of the Canaries by the “calmas”, the period of equilibrium between the two main weather systems we’re subject to – the alisios (trade winds) from the Atlantic and hot air from Africa. Now, though, the borrasca is approaching us, and could bring rain to some parts of the western islands and winds which will be felt at altitude especially. The forecast for the next several days is still being developed and it is unlikely that we’re going to get a “storm” but certainly we can expect temperatures to drop somewhat, some blustery winds, and possibly some rain at times in some places: the following video from MeteoLaMatanza shows the graphics of the approach. Winter’s coming …